With the Fantasy Football regular season over and playoffs starting this coming weekend, it’s time to look back on Draft Day and see how we all did. It’s also a good time to figure out the best strategy for next year, before we get blinded by hype trains and expert pre-rankings.
Here’s a comparison of Quarterback rankings going into the season compared to current rankings using Average Fantasy Points per Game.
Clearly the way to go here was to wait on QBs. Yes Rodgers, Brees and Luck have provided good returns on their early round price tag but one would be far better off using those top picks on Wide Receivers and then picking Brady, Ryan, Mariota, Cousins, Carr or Prescott later on.
Advice for next year – There will be at least 12 very good fantasy quarterbacks to start next year (Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Newton, Wilson, Ryan, Luck, Mariota, Roethlisberger, Winston, Carr, Prescott, Cousins makes 13). That means there’s no reason to rush on QBs. Go ahead and wait until round 7-10 to pick a QB.
Once again, the running back results were extremely unpredictable. David Johnson and Ezekiel Elliott have been absolute monsters and many of the mid-round picks like Murray, Gordon and other Murray have done really well. Meanwhile Gurley, Peterson, Lacy and Martin have sunk owners to the bottom of the standings. As always, there have been some great late picks/waiver adds that have done really well, like Blount, Howard and Ware.
Advice for next year – Johnson, Elliott and Bell will be ranked #1-3 overall in every draft, in that order, and I will pick them as such. After that, I will focus on filling my WR slots before picking more RBs due to their unpredictability. I’ll come back to picking RBs around round 4-6.
There were a few landmines in the WR rankings, like Hopkins, Robinson and Marshall and later Alshon and Watkins, but most of those were due to poor QB play. Otherwise, the current top 10 average scores per week are all owned by receivers ranked in the top 15 pre-season. WR continues to be the most predictable position and needs to be drafted as such.
Advice for next year – Once the top 3 running backs are off the board, I will use my next 3 picks on Wide Receivers.
This chart is a little deceiving by the use of average scoring instead of total scoring. Reed, Gronk and Eifert have been good when healthy but they’ve been healthy very rarely during the season and all three are injury prone and difficult to trust in the future. That leaves Graham, Walker, Olsen and Kelce as the top tight ends, who have 103, 102, 102 and 101 points respectively. Those are extremely low scores and there’s almost nothing separating them. If that trend continues, I will seriously start considering picking kickers ahead of tight ends.
Advice for next year – Unless Gronk receives a clean bill of health, there is no reason to pick a tight end before round 6. I will make sure all of my WR, RB and flex spots are full before taking a TE.
Bringing it all together
Let’s take a look at the best (and worst) draft picks were each round. I’m assuming people picked players around where they were ranked pre-season and I’m using Average Points Per Game to judge. I’m also assuming a 12 team league and non-PPR scoring.
Even if you picked all guys in red, let’s hope you got some of these:
All Waiver Wire Team
Had a great draft or a terrible draft? Please share them in the comments!
Good luck in the fantasy football playoffs!